The Linear Future Fallacy and Austria’s Startup Scene
Have you ever heard of the linear future fallacy? Our brain loves to extrapolate the future directly from the past. It’s convenient – and surprisingly, it has worked time and again. But is it good? That’s the question, because truly creative, innovative, “out-of-the-box” thinking rarely emerges from it.
In our complex, disruptive VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), linear thinking is no longer enough. The straight-line megatrends that once explained change are too limited – in fact, they no longer exist.
Societal developments today unfold dynamically, contradictorily, disruptively, and often unpredictably. The future does not emerge from “more of the same,” but from the interplay of trends and countertrends. Like a pendulum swinging in both directions – to the extreme – pausing briefly in stillness, before a counter-movement takes shape. Those who take a macro perspective and adopt a non-judgmental, observing attitude in this stillness can draw from a field of unlimited possibilities that reveal themselves – and consciously shape the future.
Key Competence: Ambiguity Tolerance
Ambiguity tolerance creates room to maneuver – psychologically and cognitively. It allows us to perceive uncertainty not as a threat but as a natural component of complex systems. It fosters calmness and psychological flexibility – the ability to swing between opposites, use tensions creatively, and think long-term. Ambiguity tolerance means being able to live with contradictory information without rushing into simplistic judgments. People with high ambiguity tolerance pause, accept nuance, endure open questions and even articulate them, make thoughtful decisions, and perform better in creative problem-solving.
But for ideas to turn into real success stories, innovation spirit alone is not enough – capital is also needed. And crucially: at the right time, in the right place.
Creative Potential and Capital in Austria
The recently published Austrian Investing Report 2024, issued by invest.austria, provides a thorough analysis of Austria’s private capital market. Central questions include: Who is investing in Austria’s future? What strategies are investors pursuing? And what concrete contributions do they make to the country’s economic development?
The report invites a closer look: despite multiple crises in the past two years – war, inflation, interest rate turnaround, regulatory burdens – much has moved. The willingness to invest is there. 165 capital providers – from business angels and family offices to institutional investors – plan around €225 million in investments for 2025. A significant portion flows directly into Austrian startups, scale-ups, and SMEs. These numbers stand not only for capital but also for perspective: according to the Austrian Startup Monitor 2024, 79.4% of domestic startups plan new hires in the coming year. The estimated job potential amounts to up to 206,000 new positions.
Investors Drive Growth, Founders Drive Innovation
Startups and growth-oriented companies are more than economic hopefuls – they are engines of renewal. They bring innovation to the market, create qualified jobs, (help relieve our looming pension crisis), and accelerate the transformation of our economy. Austria’s investors are committed, resilient, and future-oriented. They invest, create new participation models, support founders operationally – and thereby actively contribute to the stability and innovative power of our country. The bridges that connect capital and innovation are in place. Now it is up to us to cross them – through responsible action and investment.
The Future Belongs to Those Who Shape Ambiguity
To close the loop, the words of futurist Matthias Horx fit particularly well:
“The future belongs to those who can not only endure ambiguity, but actively shape it.”
How true! Ambiguity is an invitation to see the world in its interconnections. To view paradoxes, structural breaks, and crises not as disruptions, but as drivers – and to look into the future with wonder, clarity, and the ability to act. Our crises bring us to the edge – and at the same time, they open up a field of infinite creative possibilities. How beautiful is that?